(This is the third post in the series. To start at the beginning, click here.)
Is it a coin toss?
The question, “What if you’re wrong?” is actually a good question. Being wrong is always an option. We need to be prepared for our failures and take action to insure against them. We need to understand the consequences of our choices and take steps to reduce the damage. This is true no matter what the subject. Yet in the real world, even when the question is a simple yes or no, the odds are usually stacked in favor of one side or the other. So, to make rational decision about our future choices, we can’t make a simple coin toss. We need probabilities.
Specifically addressing the, “What if you’re wrong?” question, we need to assess not only how likely it is that we might be wrong, but if wrong, how likely are the consequences. You see, the fellow didn’t just challenge my lack of belief that a god exists, but also insisted that hell was the obvious consequence. Let me explain why that fails to terrify me.
Is it even real?
What if someone asked you, “What if your car won’t start?” You might be able to put a number to the possibility—say one chance in 5000. With odds this low, you wouldn’t give it a second thought. Even if you owned a really crappy car and the number was more like 1 in 100, it still wouldn’t raise too much concern. Now imagine if this fellow went one step further and insisted that, if your car wouldn’t start, it would certainly explode into a Hollywood style fireball. Certainly if that were true a 1 in 100 chance would become a real concern. But really—an exploding fireball? Would you be taking that person’s automotive advice in the future? No? I didn’t think so. Not without a great deal of corroborating evidence in any case.
The problem is that the probabilities are just too low to cause any real concern. We will never be absolutely certainty about anything. We don’t know for sure if that flight is going to land safely but we board the plane anyway. We don’t know for sure that our drive to work will be free from drunk drivers but we go to work anyway. That’s how life is lived—for all of us. No one is certain.
Yet, some things we can be sure of. Cars that blow up in Hollywood style fireballs are extremely rare outside of Hollywood. They are only common in the Hollywood mythology, and even then they only exist to intensify the dramatic factor of the myth. In the same way, the notion of hell is so illogical, immoral and improbable that it warrants no consideration at all. It only exists in religious mythology, and even then it is only there to intensify the dramatic factor of the myth.
How to respond
Am I wrong about god? It’s not a 50/50 proposition. I have given it a lot of thought and I think the actual chances are really, really low. But if I’m wrong, what are the consequences? The additional possibility that hell exists is even smaller—exceedingly small. To give it a second thought is to buy the myth, not the reality. To let it change my behavior is to become a willing slave to fear.